China's growth target still within reach despite tariff head...

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China’s growth target still within reach despite tariff head...

20-06-2025 14:03

China’s growth target still within reach despite tariff headwinds

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China’s growth target still within reach despite tariff headwinds

Optimism continues to fuel China's economy as it moves steadily toward its 2025 growth target. According to currency strategists at ING, the country is likely to meet its goal by year-end, despite global headwinds.

ING analysts highlighted strong May data as evidence of resilience: exports remained robust, retail sentiment improved, and industrial output showed expansion. “Barring an unexpected deterioration in the June data, it's likely that China remains on track to achieve its growth target in the first half of 2025. We move our 2025 GDP forecast back to 4.7% YoY,” the bank noted. However, this remains just below Beijing’s official 5% growth target.

In May, the Chinese government reported better-than-expected retail sales along with growth in industrial output and investment. ING sees stable retail performance as an encouraging sign of recovery, with policy support beginning to filter through the economy.

Industrial output also held firm in May, particularly in large-scale manufacturing. However, China’s low-tech production, especially in consumer goods, continues to suffer under US tariffs. ING observed a slight industrial slowdown as American trade barriers weighed on growth.

The bank also pointed to weaker fixed asset investment growth, reflecting investor uncertainty toward China. The ongoing slump in the real estate sector has added further pressure in the first half of 2025.

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